Ukraine has acquired new weapons against the Russians. But we will lose the war if the US cuts supplies, warns Kiev
Ukraine's defenders now have new ways to strike the Russian aggressor far beyond their shared borders. The United States has approved the use of longer-range missiles on Russian territory, and the Biden administration has pledged to provide Ukraine with new anti-personnel landmines. This aid is aimed at slowing Russia's recent advances on the front, which have been accelerating in recent weeks. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky warns that the current support is insufficient and that Ukraine could lose the war if U.S. arms supplies are cut under a potential Donald Trump administration.
More than 1,000 days have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion, and Moscow does not seem to intend to stop its attacks against military and civilian infrastructure, on the contrary. While the Ukrainians have heroically repelled the Russian assaults, they are holding their ground at many points on the front line and, overall, have managed to avert Vladimir Putin's plan to quickly take over the country and install a pro-Russian government within three days. Still, the Russians are attacking along the entire front line - clashes are reported from Kharkiv, through Luhansk, Donetsk and into the Kherson region. Dozens of civilians have died in recent weeks and the power grid has suffered significant damage. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the occupiers are now advancing mainly in the east, and the possibility of an imminent Russian operation in the Zaporizhzhya region is expected. However, experts say their position is also becoming more complicated at the same time.
"Russia may not be able to sustain the current number of losses of armored vehicles and tanks in the medium term, given how quickly it is consuming its Soviet-era equipment stocks. By 2025, manpower and materiel shortages are expected to worsen if Russia attempts to maintain its current offensive tempo. Putin continues to show an aversion to such measures," the ISW noted in an analysis. Despite these challenges, Russia has gained up to six times more territory this year than it did in 2023, though neither side achieved significant gains last year. ISW also suggests that broader mobilization is a possibility if the Kremlin concludes that recent progress is slowing too much.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues working to expand its arsenal to enhance combat capabilities and achieve self-sufficiency in the long term. Zelensky's "internal resilience" plan, presented to the Ukrainian legislature, outlines key priorities: maintaining national unity and cooperation with partners, stabilizing the front line, increasing domestic production capacity, implementing economic policies to support Ukrainian industry, and safeguarding the country’s energy infrastructure.
In terms of military production, Zelensky announced that Ukraine has produced over 2.5 million mortar and artillery shells locally this year. By 2024, the goal is to manufacture at least 3,000 missiles and 30,000 long-range drones. Ukraine has also received U.S. approval to deploy ATACMS missiles on Russian territory, which have already been tested on targets such as an ammunition depot in Bryansk Oblast. Additionally, anti-personnel landmines are set to be delivered soon, with assurances from Ukraine that they will only be used in combat zones free of civilians and will deactivate after a certain period to limit risks. Despite these developments, Zelensky insists that these measures alone are not sufficient to secure victory.
"If supplies are cut, I think we will lose. Of course, we will fight on, we will rely on our production, but it will not be enough to win and, in my opinion, not enough to survive," Zelensky told Fox News. His comments reflect concerns about the potential reduction in U.S. support under a Trump administration, which would take office early next year. Nonetheless, Zelensky has increasingly emphasized the possibility of ceasefire talks. Asked whether Trump could influence Putin to end the war, Zelensky responded: "It will not be easy, but yes, it is possible because he is stronger than Putin. Putin is weaker than the United States. The U.S. president has power, authority, and weapons, and he can reduce the price of energy resources."
Many Republicans oppose extensive U.S. support for Ukraine, arguing that American taxpayers should not bear the cost of funding these supplies. Incoming Vice President J.D. Vance has criticized military aid, citing concerns over the United States' manufacturing capacity and the need to pivot focus to East Asia in response to challenges posed by China.
This political shift may lead to a gradual decline in U.S. attention to Ukraine and, potentially, significant changes on the battlefield. "There is a real possibility that Ukraine's eastern front could collapse if the Russians continue advancing rapidly," Marina Miron, a security researcher at King's College London, told the BBC. The report noted that occupation forces had seized more than 1,000 square kilometers of territory from September to November, with the largest gains around Kupyansk in Kharkiv and Kurakhove in Donetsk.
