Independence from the US? How Germany’s new leadership could cripple American arms sales
As Germany prepares for a potential political shift with Friedrich Merz, the CDU’s candidate for chancellor, at the helm, the future of US defense contracts with Berlin has become increasingly uncertain. Merz's vocal stance on securing "independence" from the United States, his criticism of the "America first" doctrine, and his readiness for a "worst case scenario" — where the US might no longer be viewed as a reliable ally — signal a turbulent period ahead for transatlantic defense cooperation.
A New Era of European Self-Reliance
Merz’s approach comes at a critical time for Europe, as the continent scrambles to rebuild its military capabilities. His proposed collaboration with the Social Democrats to establish a €200 billion emergency defense fund underscores a pivot toward self-reliance — a move that could sideline American defense contractors.
Analysts suggest that this shift could have far-reaching consequences for a series of major US-German defense deals, notably the $8.8 billion order for 35 Lockheed Martin F-35A fighter jets. Other prominent contracts include the purchase of Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopters, and RTX Patriot air defense systems.
The F-35: A Symbol of US Dependence?
Among these deals, the F-35 order appears to be the most vulnerable. JJ Gertler, a senior analyst at the Teal Group, highlights the fighter jet's reliance on continuous US support, such as data access and software upgrades, making it more than just a one-time purchase. "The US’ reliability as a partner has to be considered more seriously," he remarked.
Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, echoed these concerns, pointing out that "the most survivable US export programs are the ones that need the least care and feeding from the US." Given the F-35's dependence on a steady stream of American upgrades and parts, its future seems tied to the strength of US-German relations.
Despite these doubts, some believe the F-35 deal is relatively secure. Jim Townsend, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, argues that Germany has "no other option" for replacing its aging Panavia Tornado fleet, especially since the F-35 is expected to carry US B61-12 bombs for NATO nuclear deterrence missions starting in 2026.
Other US Contracts: Safe or at Risk?
The fate of other US defense deals appears mixed. The $2.4 billion order for Patriot air defense systems, along with a $5.5 billion European acquisition of Patriot Guidance Enhanced Missiles (GEM-T), seems less likely to face cancellation. Townsend stressed that Patriot is "too important for German air defense to be left behind," and Aboulafia added that there are few viable European alternatives.
On the other hand, the CH-47F Chinook helicopter deal seems relatively secure, not least because its only competition came from another US firm — Lockheed Martin’s CH-53K King Stallion. Analysts believe the Chinook's ability to be supported by in-country depots, minimizing reliance on US supply chains, works in its favor.
Long-Term Outlook: A Growing European Defense Identity
While existing contracts might survive, the long-term outlook for US defense sales to Germany appears less optimistic. Gertler predicts that Merz’s pursuit of “independence” will make it harder for US companies to secure future deals. "Going forward, there will be no preference for US equipment stemming from a regard for their role as a guarantor of European security," he explained.
Moreover, the European Union's push for a more integrated defense policy adds another layer of complexity. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently unveiled plans for a "designated European instrument" aimed at bolstering continental defense spending, with a particular focus on air defense, long-range strike capabilities, UAVs, and missile systems.
Townsend believes that while the US currently holds an advantage due to its advanced technology, European industry could catch up over time. "In the short to medium term, the US will have the upper hand. But in the long term, if European industry rises to the challenge, they’ll have competition, particularly on price," he noted.
Conclusion
As Germany redefines its defense priorities, the US defense industry finds itself at a crossroads. While existing contracts — including the high-stakes F-35 order — might weather the storm, the broader trend toward European self-reliance and strategic autonomy suggests a more challenging environment for future US arms sales. Ultimately, the balance of power in transatlantic defense cooperation may be on the brink of a significant shift.
