A blow to both Russia and Iran: the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad has fallen after 24 years. The dictator has fled to Moscow
Rebels in Syria have seized the capital, Damascus, and overthrown the authoritarian regime of President Bashar al-Assad almost unopposed, after 13 years of civil war. The dictator fled the country to Moscow, where he was granted asylum by Vladimir Putin. The swift collapse of the Assad regime followed the advance of Islamist militias from the north, led by the largest group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. This event marks a significant loss for Assad's main allies, Russia and Iran. Western leaders have broadly welcomed the end of the dictatorial regime in Syria but have expressed concerns about potential chaos and the need for stability.
This is one of the greatest historical milestones of recent times for the Middle East. A bastion of oppression has fallen on the modern "axis of evil," through which regimes in Moscow and Tehran exerted their influence over the Arab world. Following the Islamists' rapid advance into the heart of Syria, Bashar al-Assad's 24-year rule ended, bringing an end to six decades of autocratic control by his family. The Syrian tyrant finally made his ignominious escape aboard an Ilyushin Il-76, which apparently disconnected its transponder shortly after takeoff, vanishing from radar. Ultimately, Assad resurfaced in one of the most unexpected countries—granted asylum by Vladimir Putin.
The largest statue of Hafez al-Assad in all of #Syria, located in the town of Deir Atiyah, north of #Damascus, has just been toppled.
— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 9, 2024
People sing: "Raise your head, you are a free Syrian" as they dance on the toppled #Assad. pic.twitter.com/cNl8hWfKW0
"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and members of his family have arrived in Moscow, where Russia has granted them asylum on humanitarian grounds," the Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed Kremlin source as saying. This was later confirmed by Kremlin spokesman Sergei Peskov, who stated that the decision was made directly by President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s representative to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, emphasized that this move confirmed the long-standing alliance from which both sides have benefited. Since the civil war began in 2011, the Russian military has helped Assad eliminate opposition groups—whether moderate factions or Islamist terrorists. Syria has served as an important forward base for Russia's military operations.
Putin deployed thousands of troops to support Assad, coinciding with Russia’s first incursion into Ukraine. It was a significant effort to assert itself as a global power and challenge the West. Meanwhile, the United States, through its support of the Kurdish-led alliance, has fought and continues to combat Islamic State-linked groups in northeastern Syria. With backing from Russia and Iran, which have supplied fighters and military equipment, Assad has targeted all opposition, including rebels in the north supported by Turkey. Over the years, indirect clashes between several powers have occurred, along with the massacre of hundreds of thousands of civilians due to indiscriminate shelling and the use of chemical weapons on entire cities. Both Russia and the United States maintain relatively significant military presences in Syria.
"We have approximately 900 US forces deployed in Syria in support of the mission to permanently defeat IS," Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said at a news conference before the fall of Damascus, adding that the Islamists' advance on the capital fell outside the US military's area of operations. Russia, on the other hand, maintains two strategic bases: the Hmimim air base and the Tartus naval base, which were leased from Assad's regime for 49 years. These bases are vital to Moscow not only for operations in Syria but also as a gateway to and from Africa for contractors involved in conflicts across the continent.
After initially labeling the rebels as terrorists, consistent with rhetoric from Western states, the Kremlin is now moderating its stance and seeking communication. "Russia is taking the necessary steps to establish contact in Syria with those who can ensure the security of military bases," Peskov told reporters, according to The Guardian.
In addition to the Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a coalition of groups including the An-Nusra Front, formerly Syria's Al-Qaeda branch—other militants from similar factions supported the uprising. While they have promised peace and established a degree of law and order, their adherence to a radical interpretation of Sunni Islam raises concerns about Syria's future security and governance. "How many people have been displaced around the world? How many are living in tents? How many have drowned in the seas? A new history is being written in the whole region after this great victory, my brothers," HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani said in a speech at the Umayyad Mosque, according to Reuters. He claimed Syria would become "a beacon for the Islamic nation."
The militants promise to work alongside Assad's existing ministers and proclaim a peaceful transition period that they claim will lead to free elections. As part of a gesture of general amnesty, they have opened the gates of prisons where Assad had imprisoned many political dissidents, women who were victims of systemic abuse, other wrongly convicted individuals, as well as Islamist thugs.
This is a heartbreaking video.
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) December 8, 2024
For years, we’ve heard about women prisoners in Syria being raped, giving birth in prison, and their children being imprisoned along with their mothers.
As rebels open the prison doors to release prisoners, you can see a little boy in an… pic.twitter.com/hU2K4OXuNX
"The fall of Assad's criminal regime marks a historic moment for the Syrian people. We call on all actors to avoid further violence, ensure the protection of civilians, and respect international law," the newly appointed EU diplomatic chief Kaja Kallas wrote on the X platform. "This is good news. What matters now is that law and order is quickly restored in Syria," German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, according to AP.
🇸🇾 Morning in the Syrian capital Damascus pic.twitter.com/MymSdGc0Em
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) December 8, 2024
For now, there is euphoria in Syria. People are celebrating in the streets, and when gunfire is heard, it is mostly celebratory shots fired into the air. For the first time in years, there are queues at the border in the opposite direction, with people from neighboring countries wanting to return home. There are over 6.5 million Syrian refugees around the world, most in the region. Human rights organizations estimate just under 4 million are in Turkey, over 850,000 in Lebanon, and just under 700,000 in Jordan. Germany has taken in the most among Western countries—almost 600,000.
The question remains how many of these refugees, whose displacement caused a crisis in Europe in 2015, will actually return. Their homelands are in ruins—not just economically, legally, and socially, but physically after years of fighting across Syrian cities. Much will depend on how Syria's new Islamist rulers handle the sudden rush of responsibility.
