Ukraine launched another offensive near Kursk after New Year, Russian reinforcements from DPRK suffered significant losses
The Ukrainian army has stepped up the intensity of offensive operations on Russian territory. Fierce clashes are reported from at least three locations in the Kursk region along the spur that the Ukrainians have managed to capture since the August offensive across their border. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian reinforcements from North Korea lost an entire battalion in fighting just days after the start of 2025, with up to 1,000 DPRK soldiers confirmed dead by the United States. The news of the advance near Kursk comes at a time when, by contrast, the Russians are trying to make a breakthrough in the Donetsk region, reporting territorial gains.
Almost five months after the surprising and successful Ukrainian incursion into Russia, there are reports from both sides of the conflict of renewed fighting on enemy territory. Both sides speak of heavy clashes. Russian military sources describe that Ukrainian forces have carried out several attacks in three waves northeast of the Russian town of Sudzha with a large presence of armoured vehicles. Ukraine has not commented on its actions beyond Russia's borders for a long time and has not officially claimed the new advance. However, an unnamed senior Ukrainian military official told Reuters that the Russians in the Kursk region "are getting what they deserve."
Shortly after the August 2024 operation began, Ukrainian troops controlled 1,400 square kilometers of Russian land. They subsequently lost some territory, but before the end of the year it was still nearly 1,000 square kilometres. Geolocated imagery, according to analysts at the U.S. Institute for the Study of War, suggests that the Ukrainians have now advanced across the plains southwest and south of the village of Berdin, about a third of the distance from Kursk, and also control part of the village itself on the main road to the region's capital. More heavy fighting is reported southeast of Sudzi near the village of Makhnovka, which the Ukrainians were expected to capture almost entirely, as well as westward to Lyubimovka, still held by Russian troops.
NEW: Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/WFLEhLH5eY
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) January 6, 2025
"Russian war bloggers have largely expressed concern that renewed Ukrainian efforts in the Kursk region may be a diversionary effort, saying it is too early to determine whether these Kursk operations could be part of a future major advance," ISW comments on the latest developments. According to experts, the incursion into Russia is seen firstly as a possible insurance policy for Kiev in future peace negotiations and secondly as an effort to divert and distract Russian forces from having sufficient support on Ukrainian territory.
According to sources there, the Russians are therefore expecting another Ukrainian attack, which is why they deployed North Korean reinforcements before the end of the year, provided to Russia by the friendly Kim Jong-un regime in exchange for supplies from Russia - including military technology. In this respect, Moscow is silent and has neither officially confirmed nor denied the presence of troops from the DPRK. According to Ukrainian and Western officials, some 12,000 of them are operating near the Ukrainian border.
Reported as the 🇺🇦 22nd Brigade destroying a North Korean assault group in the Kursk region. pic.twitter.com/bMPOLNdbYA
— Kvist (@kvistp) January 6, 2025
"The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces informed about the situation in the Kursk region. Specifically, about the battles near the village of Makhnovka in the Kursk region. The Russian army has apparently lost an entire infantry battalion, including North Korean soldiers and Russian paratroopers. And this is a noticeable loss," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a regular report on social media. He said 3,800 North Koreans have already been killed in the fighting, but said tens of thousands more may come to the Russians' aid.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to South Korea that the U.S. says about 1,000 soldiers from its northern neighbour have already died in Russian ranks. "The DPRK is already receiving Russian military equipment and training. Moreover, we now have reason to believe that Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with Pyongyang," Blinken told reporters in Seoul, according to CNN.
Less favourable news is coming from the eastern Ukrainian front, specifically from the Donetsk region, where the Ukrainians are failing to significantly slow down the Russian advance. This is especially in the direction of Kurachove and the more populous Pokrovsk, some 20 kilometres to the north. Both towns have experienced devastating waves of Russian shelling and ground troop breakthrough efforts in recent weeks, turning them into virtual ghost towns.
The Russians have repeatedly announced the conquest of these two important strategic centres for supplying the front, but the Ukrainians have not yet admitted any losses and say that the defenders are fighting hard for the towns. Similar to the Ukrainian perspective in Kursk, the Russians are trying to improve their position on the battlefield until the expected arrival of the newly elected US President Trump, who campaigned on a promise of a quick end to the nearly three-year conflict. Experts say the ceasefire will have to include compromises and recognition of territorial losses, especially by the Ukrainian side.
