The globalization of the conflict in Ukraine may initiate new flashpoints and proxy wars
The involvement of regular troops from the DPRK and forces from Central Asia or Yemen’s Houthis in operations at the front not only represents an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict but may also mark the beginning of Russia’s efforts to create new flashpoints and establish an organized military force to challenge the West. This is further suggested by reports of negotiations between Houthi rebels and Russia regarding arms supplies.
Russia has reportedly provided satellite data to the Yemeni Houthis via Iran, enabling them to target missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Western merchant ships in the Red Sea. Since the fall of 2023, the Houthis have attacked 200 merchant ships in international waters near Yemen. Several ships have been hijacked, sunk, or severely damaged. This increasingly close cooperation between Iran and Russia raises legitimate concerns, particularly about the supply of advanced weapons systems. For instance, Russia has recently provided Iran with sophisticated air defense systems. These developments suggest that Russia may be fulfilling its threat to respond to Western weapon supplies to Ukraine by similarly equipping entities capable of threatening Western interests, effectively waging a proxy war—a practice Russia accuses Western states of pursuing.
Proxy War
A proxy war is an international conflict where parties seek to achieve their objectives by conducting military operations on the territory of a third country, using its resources under the pretext of resolving its internal conflict (as defined by Karl Deutsch in 1964).
Engaging in proxy warfare reduces risks for the main actors, lowers costs, and minimizes the loss of their citizens. These efforts are often accompanied by attempts to deny responsibility for interventions. As President Dwight D. Eisenhower remarked in 1955, proxy wars are “the cheapest insurance in the world.”
However, as seen in recent history and current events in the Middle East, the real consequences of such interventions are often unpredictable, and formulating an appropriate follow-up policy is challenging. For instance, recent reports indicate advancements by Islamist rebel groups in Syria. The question arises: Who supports and manipulates these groups, and what are their main objectives? In addition to targeting the Assad regime, these actions may aim to weaken Russia’s influence, as it has military bases and regional interests in Syria. Over time, it remains to be seen who will emerge weakened or strengthened. Other players, such as China, could also seize the opportunity to enhance their influence in the region.
Involvement of Foreign Soldiers from the Middle East
In the context of the Ukrainian conflict, the broader involvement of Middle Eastern fighters—some with experience opposing the Israeli army or enduring extreme deprivation—cannot be ruled out. Many of these individuals, motivated by a desire for vengeance or survival, may find financial incentives and opportunities to combat Western forces on Ukrainian soil. After the war, they could pose significant threats upon returning to their home regions. Furthermore, by involving these fighters, Russia may deepen its influence in the Middle East.
Is an Anti-Western Coalition Forming in Ukraine?
Russia’s portrayal of the Ukrainian conflict as a proxy war aimed at weakening it through NATO involvement is designed not only for domestic audiences. Framing the conflict as a defensive struggle against NATO aggression could serve to expand an anti-Western coalition. The growing participation of foreign troops in Ukraine introduces significant risks of further escalation. Beyond the military threat on NATO’s eastern flank, there is a real possibility that such conditions may lead to attacks on Western states in other regions, particularly the Middle East.
Hybrid Warfare
Hybrid warfare involves a combination of conventional military forces and non-military means to achieve synergistic effects, with non-military tools playing a critical role. These include psychological operations, information warfare and propaganda, cyberattacks, criminal and terrorist activities, and economic sanctions.
In this context, Russia’s creation of new threats provides it with additional leverage to counter Western support for Ukraine and, in the future, exert pressure on the West, particularly in the Middle East. Unless compelled into an open war with NATO, Russia is likely to continue seeking asymmetric ways to weaken the West while avoiding direct confrontation. Current measures include hacking, information warfare, and propaganda, along with suspected sabotage operations in Europe. It is crucial to recognize that an actor unable to retaliate symmetrically often seeks alternative strategies. These responses, often unpredictable and asymmetric, may not occur immediately but are executed when they align with the attacker’s strategic interests.
