China’s military maneuvers around Taiwan signal strong warning amid rising tensions
In a show of force aimed at sending a stern message to Taiwan, China launched its largest-ever air operation in Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), accompanied by a simulated naval blockade of the island on October 14-15. The exercise, named “Joint Sword 2024B,” involved 153 aircraft, 14 warships (including a Chinese aircraft carrier), and 12 Chinese Coast Guard vessels. Analysts view the exercise as a calculated move to reinforce China's opposition to what it sees as provocative pro-independence rhetoric from Taiwan's leadership, without triggering a broader conflict.
Context and Timing
The timing of the operation was no coincidence. It occurred just days after Taiwan’s National Day on October 10, during which President Lai Ching-te made statements that Beijing interpreted as supportive of Taiwanese independence. China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, used the occasion to remind Taiwan’s government of its military might and resolve. The People's Liberation Army's (PLA) demonstration of joint capabilities highlighted China’s readiness to coordinate air, naval, and coast guard forces in a blockade scenario, a long-term developmental objective for the military.
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund, noted that the PLA's daily operations in Taiwan’s ADIZ have become routine, but the scale of this particular exercise was a clear effort to convey China's displeasure with President Lai's remarks. "They likely sent higher numbers of military aircraft and ships to ensure that Lai gets the message that Beijing strongly opposes what they view as his provocative pro-independence rhetoric," Glaser stated.
Rising Risks and Strategic Implications
The substantial deployment demonstrated China's growing proficiency in joint military operations and highlighted the PLA’s ability to mobilize assets for a potential air and naval blockade. Collin Joh, a defense analyst at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, emphasized that this exercise should not be seen as mere posturing. He warned that China's continuous military pressure is "blurring the lines between posturing and the real thing," potentially raising the risk of a miscalculation leading to a military confrontation.
Chinese forces have gradually moved closer to Taiwan’s territorial waters, approaching the 24-mile Contiguous Zone, a threshold that could provoke a military response from Taiwan if crossed. While China appears to be cautious in avoiding a direct provocation, there is a calculated effort to keep pressure on Taiwan while encouraging the island’s military to make a move that could justify Chinese retaliation.
An Imminent Invasion Unlikely
Despite the military build-up and the scale of the exercise, experts downplay the likelihood of an imminent invasion. Glaser argued that Beijing's military intentions toward Taiwan remain unchanged and that now is not the right time for China to resort to kinetic action. China faces internal economic challenges, including slowing growth, mounting debt, and a declining population, which may limit its appetite for a major military escalation.
International Reactions: U.S. and Australia Express Concerns
The exercise drew strong condemnation from both the United States and Australia. Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder called the operation "irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing." He pointed out that Taiwan’s National Day speech is a routine, domestic event that has historically not warranted such a response from Beijing. The U.S. administration accused China of using the occasion to undertake provocative military actions.
Similarly, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong expressed concern through a spokesperson, calling the Chinese maneuvers “deeply concerning.” She urged China to refrain from actions that could increase the risk of accidents and potential escalation, signaling the international community's unease over China's military activities in the region.
Conclusion
China's military maneuvers around Taiwan are part of a broader strategy to assert its claims over the island while testing the readiness and resolve of Taiwan's military. The massive exercise demonstrated China's evolving military capabilities and reinforced its geopolitical message to Taipei. However, analysts agree that China is not seeking an immediate military confrontation. Instead, it aims to deter Taiwan’s pro-independence sentiments and maintain a posture of strategic pressure. As tensions continue to simmer, the risk of miscalculation remains, necessitating cautious diplomacy and measured responses from all parties involved.
