3 years of Russian aggression in Ukraine: Moscow forcibly linked the occupied areas with Crimea, but did not break the defenders of the country

 25. 02. 2025      Category: Defense & Security

Ukraine has entered its fourth year of full-scale Russian military aggression. On February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin decided on a violent attempt to occupy the entire territory of Ukraine in order to overthrow the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and incorporate the state into the Russian Federation. The occupiers failed in their most ambitious goal: to capture the capital Kiev within three days. Instead, they were met with defiant Ukrainian civilians and, most importantly, soldiers who proudly stood up for their homeland and gradually pushed the aggressor out of most of the territory. Thus, Moscow has not even succeeded in creating a corridor from annexed Crimea west to separatist Transnistria in Moldova. Instead, it has succeeded in one of its main objectives, namely to link Crimea across to the occupied territory in eastern Ukraine. The country's defenders remain determined to defend it, with or without Western help. Leaders assured Ukrainians of that from Europe and other world powers during the summit in Kiev on the anniversary. Commemorative events and demonstrations against Russia took place in many countries, not only on the old continent.

Picture: Statesmen in Kiev with Volodymyr Zelensky during the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | Ukrainian Presidential Office
Picture: Statesmen in Kiev with Volodymyr Zelensky during the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. | Ukrainian Presidential Office

Some statesmen, including Czech representatives, headed to Kiev not long after the Russian invasion three years ago. Together, they repeated it this year, when they wanted to send a clear message of unity to both Ukrainian partners and the Russian enemy. And, in part, to the United States, whose new Donald Trump administration has increasingly expressed the view that security guarantees to Ukraine are Europe's problem.

Twenty statesmen without American representatives therefore assured Volodymyr Zelensky and other representatives of the occupied country of the undying support of the ever broader international community in the Ukrainian capital. They pledged to continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine even if there is a U.S. default, while warning of the war's broader implications for global security.

"Autocrats around the world are watching very carefully whether there is any chance of impunity if you violate international borders or attack your neighbor, or whether there is any real deterrence," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned in Kiev, according to AP. "Ukrainian voices must be at the heart of the efforts for peace. (...) Trump's intervention has changed the global landscape, but it has also created an opportunity. Russia does not hold all the cards in this war," said British Prime Minister Keir Starmer during the anniversary.

Leaders of friendly countries, including Canada and Denmark, and remotely Japan and the Czech Republic, have stressed the need to involve Ukraine in the peace debate. "The Kiev conference on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed unity and common determination. Together with more than 30 world leaders, we agreed that Russia must not be rewarded for its aggression during peace talks. There can be no lasting peace in Europe without a just peace for Ukraine," Czech President Petr Pavel wrote on his X profile after the conference.

Commemorative events for Ukrainian victims and protests against Russian aggression were held around the world. At Ukrainian embassies and consulates people threw flowers and lit candles, at Russian embassies a number of happenings took place, as well as at the one in Prague, where a concert Noise for Ukraine took place in the Ukrainian Heroes Street right next to the Russian embassy for, according to the organisers, "expressing resistance to Russian aggression and paying tribute to Ukrainian heroes who have been fighting for three years not only for the freedom of Ukraine, but for the freedom of all of us". NATO's eastern wing took the 3rd year of the war in its own way - an impressive formation of US B-52H strategic bombers with the ability to carry nuclear missiles flew over Estonia 50 kilometres from the Russian border, accompanied by both F-35 and F/A-18 fighter jets.

The situation on the battlefield remains complex. The Ukrainians have long stressed the need for continued supplies of weapons and other assistance to match the multiply equipped and outnumbered enemy. And while the Russian advance on the front is not rapid, it is still noticeable and persistent, especially in the Donetsk region, where the Russians report more villages captured. "In 2024, Russia has devoted vast amounts of forces and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine with the intention of decimating Ukrainian defenses and seizing the rest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. These Russian efforts included major operations in the direction of Kharkiv, around Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar," the US Institute for the Study of War wrote on the third anniversary, adding that Russia's partial territorial gains were bought at an exorbitant cost in terms of heavy losses of both troops and equipment.

"Russia's losses in this massive effort, which has failed to break through Ukrainian lines or drive the Ukrainians very far behind the front lines, exacerbate the challenges Russia will face in trying to sustain the war effort in 2025 and 2026. Russia probably cannot continue the effort indefinitely without a major mobilization effort, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far refused to order. Ukraine, on the other hand, has demonstrated its ability to repel massive and determined Russian offensive efforts even in periods of limited Western assistance," ISW notes of conditions on the front. In addition, last year saw a successful Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, where the Ukrainians still hold part of the territory they want to exchange for their occupied areas during ceasefire negotiations.

The war in Ukraine is the worst conflict in Europe since the end of the Second World War, and the number of casualties on both sides can only be estimated. According to President Zelensky's latest statement, more than 46 000 soldiers have died and 400 000 have been wounded on the Ukrainian side in the three years of the conflict, but estimates by Western observers tend to be several times higher. At least 10,000 civilians have also died as a result of Russian actions. Entire cities and thousands of buildings across the country have been destroyed. Experts say Moscow's vastly underestimated losses were the first and last time it made public its figures during the first year of the war, when it claimed lower figures of thousands of soldiers killed. According to the BBC's Russian Mediazone project, Russian losses have already reached nearly 100,000 dead. The Ukrainians say the Russians have lost more than 800,000 men in total, but they include prisoners and wounded.

 Author: Oliver Jahn

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